Is this borrower’s order book as solid as the model assumes?
A defence borrower’s revenue rests on a supply chain a credit file never reaches. The single point that could interrupt delivery is the one that isn’t in the model.
Settled as the Lending Evidence PackCredit diligence reads the accounts and the contracts. It rarely reads the chain underneath them — the sub-tier sole-source whose failure would interrupt the order book the facility is lent against. Supply-chain dependency, never a market, price or return call.
What the order book actually rests on.
Typical reader: a defence-sector lender or credit team.
The order book grows; the chain beneath it stays unseen.
The £298bn Defence Investment Plan is filling defence order books — but the chain underneath them is where a credit file stops looking. The same sub-tier sole-source can sit under several borrowers a model reads as unrelated. Supply-chain dependency, never a market, price or return call. See what changed →